GE2011 - Leadership Renewal??

Is GE 2011 really about getting the right people to form the fourth generation leadership? Does it overrides all the other issues in consideration?

Here are the snippets:-

SM Goh was quite unequivocal about the matter. “We must produce Singapore’s fourth Prime Minister…” in the upcoming election.

Mr Teo Chee Hean said, when asked by reporters if PM Lee’s replacement is among the new batch of PAP candidates. “All we can do is to make sure that we have a system that continues to bring in good people,” he explains.

Singapore will be selecting its fourth generation leaders in the coming General Election, Channel Newsasia (CNA) reported Health Minister Khaw Boon Wan as having said. He added that “succession planning is one of the strategies of the ruling People’s Action Party.”

I am going to look into the crystal ball and try to do what is normally an impossible task to do - I will predict PAP main battle-cry in the coming 2011 Elections. It will in all probablity revolves around two key issues:-

First, the horrifying prospect of a "freak election" where PAP is not able to be returned to power since the majority of the seats thrown up for grabs will be contested this time. Will the people be willing to risk the stability of they and their family lives by tempting to vote for an opposition just to get some alternative voices in Parliament?

Secondly, it will be crucially important to vote in the new slate of candidates that the PAP has put up in this election as some of them will eventually have to form the nucleus of a fourth generation leadership. This is the only way to secure a strong future for the nation in these tumultuous and uncertain times

Is this really the case? If election is not about a report card of the performance of the incumbent over the last five years, then what are elections really for?

To rebut the first argument, if the PAP is really worried about the prospect of a "freak election", then it must also suggest that they too also realised that their performance over the last five years must have be disastrously bad so as to allow them to contemplate that such a massive shift in public sentiment might happen. You should know in statistical terms that such a Richter scale of the order of 9.0 shift do not happen overnight unless there are strong undercurrents of discontent that converge to form an explosive mix. If that is the case, do you still want to give them an endorsing mandate so that the current pathetic state of affairs continue?

To rebuke the second argument, it could almost be argued by the PAP is always stressing the importance that they are able to bring in good people in every election. In 2006, PM Lee said that he had a "a good team of men and women". Alas, after 5 years, how have they measure up? Let us take a look at the most promising ones - Adm (Ret) Lui Tuck Yew. Do you guys really think he is so good that he can be one of the indispensable persona to be in our core leadership team. What has he really done over the last five years? Is he replaceable?  It is perhaps ironic that he turns out to man MICA when he went on record to comment that he do not look at porn. If he is truthful to his comment, I would conjecture he may not be the right man for MICA since there is a lot of porn on New Media and he has to know how to manage that. Another is Teo Ser Luck - his entire 5-year  tenure is characterised by bidding and organising a YOG which incidentally turned out to be a major flop in term of generating the right publicity for th nation and massive budget overruns.

If you go by some linear extrapolation of logic, the current slate is unlikely to think and perform significantly different from the previous batch as they have been carefully selected using the same yardstick and by the very same set of assessors.

We are not going to have the papal system whereby we have to go through a meticulous and exhaustive search to find the anointed "one" to lead each political generation. The ultimate consequence of such a system will be in-breeding within the ruling elites. In such a system, Barrack Obama will never become the President of the United States.